Netherlands have been impressive this summer, but we are expecting Morocco to record a 2-1 victory in order to progress to the round of 16. Morocco have never won the World Cup, but they did reach the semi-finals of the 2022 tournament, which represented their best-ever run in the competition. Of the teams in the bottom quarter of our projections, there are a few standout nations who the system thinks could spring a surprise.

Surely we can’t write off Brazil?

They are split into 12 groups of four, with 32 teams advancing to the knockout rounds. See here for an overview of which teams got luckiest and unluckiest based on where they slotted into the bracket. These four all reached the knockouts and have the profile to go further.

How many teams are in the 2026 World Cup?

Many members of the Red Devils’ ‘Golden Generation’ remain in the fold, even if the years are starting to catch up with them. The resurgence of James Rodríguez made headlines at that competition, as he led the way for chances created (20) and assists (six) – that latter tally equalled the record for a single edition, alongside Brazil’s Alex in 2003. But it remains to be seen whether 40-year-old goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa will earn a historic call-up. He is the third player – alongside Messi and Ronaldo – able to appear at an unprecedented sixth edition of the World Cup and was selected for the Gold Cup, so watch this space. Portugal went out to France at the next stage, as Ronaldo ended the tournament without a goal from 23 shots and 3.6 xG – the second-highest tally at the competition.

Iran’s World Cup campaign ended in heartbreaking fashion after Team Melli missed out on the knockout stage by the narrowest of margins. Their previous tournament encounter came in the 1994 group stage, when the Dutch claimed a 2-1 victory thanks to goals from Dennis Bergkamp and Bryan Roy. Cape Verde are not believed to have significant injury concerns heading into this fixture. Goalkeeper Vozinha, a veteran of 86 caps, has been the experienced anchor behind the defensive shape that earned their group stage draws. Logan Costa provides quality at centre-back, while Ryan Mendes, Cape Verde’s all-time leading scorer, remains their most experienced attacking threat.

World Cup Day 20 What to Watch: France heavily favored, but Norway-Ivory Coast and Mexico-Ecuador bring real intrigue

Morocco (1.1%) and Ecuador (1.0%) are the other teams with a greater than 1% chance of glory, with Japan (0.9%) and USA just behind. But a stunning defeat to Guatemala, in another shootout, ended Canada’s Gold Cup campaign at the quarter-final stage and brought them crashing down to earth. There will likely be an experienced feel to their squad, led by Fulham striker Raúl Jiménez, who is only eight away from Javier Hernández’s all-time Mexico goal record of 52. Pochettino has had no choice but to experiment – in November, Giovani Reyna’s return to the squad saw him become the 51st player to start a game for the USMNT in 2025. Pochettino’s side did reach the final of the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup, despite star names including Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Folarin Balogun and Antonee Robinson missing the tournament.

Cape Verde are a 19/1 shot to cause one of the tournament’s great upsets. The draw is priced at 15/2, reflecting just how unlikely a stalemate is given the gap in class between these two sides. Some links to betting partners or promotional offers on MyFootballFacts may result in a commission to help support our site. These include betting offers, free bets, and casino promotions as well as other affiliate commissions —all subject to change and individual terms and conditions. This site provides historical and current football data for informational purposes only.

Argentina vs Cape Verde Prediction

At the former tournament, Ronaldo was dropped for a last-16 tie against Switzerland after a series of ineffective displays, and his replacement Gonçalo Ramos scored a hat-trick in a 6-1 win. Mbappé is closing in on Olivier Giroud’s mark of 57 goals for France, having netted 55 times in his 93 caps. And there has been no downturn from De la Fuente’s side since. These teams met in the last 16 in Qatar and Argentina had to endure some nervy moments.

We now live in a world where Brazil, the nation with more World Cups than any other, are considered ‘dark horses’. There is something quite romantic about one of the godfathers of management being appointed by the most famous footballing country to bring home the greatest prize in football for a record-extending sixth time. None of the South American powerhouses have been overly convincing in recent times, but you’d have to guess that if the winner were to come from outside Europe, Argentina and Brazil would be favourites. Argentina are overwhelming favourites to continue their perfect World Cup campaign, even with Lionel Messi confirmed to begin the match from the substitutes bench.

As reigning champions with Messi in this sort of form and a full squad at Scaloni’s disposal, they remain a serious title contender. This Round of 32 tie should not test them, and a straightforward progression keeps them well-positioned in the World Cup 2026 bracket for the knockout rounds ahead. Cape Verde’s three World Cup draws are a creditable return against Spain and Uruguay in particular, and their disciplined defensive structure has been central to that. Their friendly results tell a more mixed story, with a heavy defeat to Bermuda sandwiched around a comfortable win over Serbia. The group-stage achievements are genuine, but their attacking output of two goals in three competitive matches underlines the challenge ahead.

• The bracket is set, and now all 32 teams can start to dream about their path to the final.
• Argentina head into this tie with a fully fit and settled squad.
• U.S. President Donald Trump and FIFA chief Gianni Infantino will present the winning country with the trophy in East Rutherford, New Jersey when the competition concludes with the World Cup final on 19 July.
• With William Pacho and Moises Caicedo forming the spine of the team, they have the foundations required to frustrate even the elite nations.
• 48 teams compete at the 2026 World Cup — expanded from 32 at Qatar 2022.
• Below is a daily World Cup game schedule so you can plan accordingly.
• But they should have too much for South Africa, even if their often erratic finishing threatens to leave the game in the balance.
• This promises to be one of the most evenly matched ties of the Round of 32.
• Brazil’s 5-title history matters less than their last 3 tournaments.
• Gillette Stadium will play host to a fascinating last-32 contest at the 2026 World Cup on Monday, as Netherlands and Morocco lock horns in the competition.
• But most of the favourites are set, with Lionel Messi hoping to help Argentina become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to successfully defend their crown.

Takeaways From Paraguay’s Upset Win vs. Germany In The Round Of 32

But even I can not confidently say Colombia will beat France, the most impressive team of the group stage, in a final scenario. They’re deep, everyone’s scoring, they’re changing and there is just a wealth of talent to choose from. But it’s at the end of this chapter and moving that things get real, real serious. The bracket is set, and now all 32 teams can start to dream about their path to the final. Ready to put your World Cup knowledge to the test this summer? 2026 Soccer Pick ‘Em with FOX One is a new free-to-play Yahoo Fantasy game where fans make picks each round, earn points and climb the leaderboard.

The latest 2026 World Cup betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook list Mexico as -182 favorites to advance to the Round of 16, while Ecuador are +148 underdogs. However, SportsLine soccer expert Matt Severance is looking for a little added security by playing Mexico (tie no bet) for a -215 payout. Building momentum heading into a tournament is huge, and the vast majority of nations will play friendly matches with their strongest teams in close proximity to the tournament to build a rapport between the players. All three teams have a chance greater than 5% of winning the tournament, and of at least 10% to reach the final. The trio are closely matched and have regularly traded ranking positions leading up to the summer. These World Cup 2026 predictions combine the final group standings and results with our own group-by-group analysis, updated after every matchday.

World Championship 2026 facts (last 90 games)

For the first time in World Cup history, the winners and runners-up of each group will be joined in the knockout round of 32 by the eight best third-placed teams. The placement of each team will affect whom they face in the knockout round. 1960Tips.com has been the trusted destination for free football predictions, expert VIP picks, and sports betting analysis since 2017.

They were the only contender to come through the group stage with a perfect record, and they did it in the toughest group in the draw. Argentina are right behind them, on the opposite side of the bracket. Here is how the leading contenders stack up as the knockouts begin. Explore more of the world’s top international football tournaments with our expert predictions and betting tips for competitions connected to the World Cup.

From the greatest individual rivalry of the 21st century to the greatest international soccer rivalry of all time. This will be tense, brutal and impossible to take your eyes off. Even if Brazil have improved as expected under Ancelotti, they are a rung below their great foes at present. Haaland’s father’s generation (Alfie actually didn’t play at the tournament in question) claimed a famous group-stage win over Brazil at France ’98. Norway have nothing to lose and can hurt Brazil, but they have a defence that Vinicius and company can exploit enough times to progress.

Norway will be the team nobody wishes to draw from Pot 3, having steamrolled their way through the UEFA qualifiers with a perfect eight wins and 37 goals – the most of any team. Eleven of the tournament’s venues are in the USA, and Mauricio Pochettino’s side are assigned a 0.9% chance of going all the way. They will be placed in Group D, with two of their first-round games taking place in Los Angeles and the other in Seattle.

• He delivered a gutsy performance in shaking off an injury to help the Americans reach the knockout round at the 2022 World Cup, becoming a household name.
• England secured top spot in Group L with victories over Panama and Croatia, while sharing the spoils with Ghana.
• There is currently a combined 3.7% chance of any of those sides going all the way, with Italy surely the most likely candidates if they can end their World Cup exile.
• The field has been supersized from 32 to 48 teams and the competition will begin in earnest on June 11 with Mexico hosting South Africa at Mexico City’s famed Estadio Azteca.
• Brazil has elite talent, though their depth remains a concern following long-term injuries to Estevao and Rodrygo months before the tournament starts.
• All three teams have a chance greater than 5% of winning the tournament, and of at least 10% to reach the final.
• Our World Cup betting analysis draws on data from recent editions of the tournament to highlight consistent patterns and team performance metrics.
• Messi also led all players in Qatar for shots (32), chances created from open play (17) and fouls won (22), becoming the second player to top all three metrics at a single World Cup.
• France became the sixth team to win as hosts in 1998, but no side has accomplished the feat since then.
• England and Panama have met only once before at the World Cup, with England cruising to a 6-1 victory in the group stage at Russia 2018.

USMNT scores 3 first-half goals in 4-1 win over Paraguay to open 2026 World Cup

While Messi inspired his capable but unspectacular team-mates to glory in 2022, Ronaldo arrives in North America with real quality all around him. There’s the PSG clan of Joao Neves, Nuno Mendes, Goncalo Ramos and Ballon d’Or third-place Vitinha who are coming into this off the back of a second straight Champions League win. Brilliant Bernardo Silva and the livewire Rafael Leao are in Roberto Martinez’s squad too. What a story it would be if, at 41-years-old, Cristiano Ronaldo matches his arch rival Lionel Messi by helping Portugal to a first-ever World Cup this summer. The Argentina ace’s supporters have been able to play a trump card whenever the debate about the two modern-day icons has been had since Messi’s heroics in Qatar. Portugal are slight favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, winning 51.6 percent of its 25,000 pre-match simulations.

We have covered the seven teams who are most likely to win the tournament, but there are also a few other potential winners. Of course, they were famously crowned world champions in South Africa – but that 2010 success also represents the only time they have reached the semi-finals from their last 14 participations. But Spain’s quality is highlighted by being the only team rated as more likely than not to reach the quarter-finals, which they did 52.1% of the time. The Sporting News is tracking the favourites to win and best betting offers including 50/1 for a goal to be scored in England vs. Congo and 40/1 for Harry Kane to have a shot in the match. This final comes down to France’s athleticism, depth and physical dominance against Portugal’s control of possession and tempo. France have stumbled before, most notably conceding three goals in the 2022 final.

Odds Across Operators

For example, by reproducing the kind of performance they showed in the opening half-hour against Brazil. In terms of pressing, I have the feeling the Atlas Lions can really trouble the Dutch. Ismael Saibari, who is set to make the move to Bayern Munich this summer, has scored three times in three appearances at the 2026 World Cup and will again lead the line. Brobbey is expected to continue through the middle for Koeman’s team, with Memphis Depay, Justin Kluivert and Crysencio Summerville set to be kept in reserve. Netherlands topped Group F with seven points to breeze into the round of 32, while Morocco finished second in Group C behind Brazil, also claiming seven points from three games.

This change significantly alters both the group stage and the knockout bracket. On this page you can view World Cup 2026 analysis and predictions. Statistical data, team form, and recent match history are taken into account, and predictions are automatically generated by AI with an accuracy of over 71.9%. When the tournament begins, it will have been 20 years since the Azzurri played a knockout match at the World Cup – with their most recent such game being the 2006 final. Haaland struck 16 of those goals, matching Robert Lewandowski’s 2018 record for the most prolific UEFA World Cup qualification campaign.

How Often is the FIFA World Cup Played?

They have only endured one previous drought of that length since first winning the tournament in 1958, between 1970 and 1994. And after Messi finally ended his wait for a World Cup win in Qatar, Portugal are assigned a 6.6% chance of giving Ronaldo his own crowning moment. A lack of recent match practice against top-class European opponents could count against the Albiceleste, who also saw Ángel Di María retire from international football after the Copa América.

• France’s flawless group stage made them the favorite, Argentina drew the kinder half of the bracket, Norway are the dark horse, and Messi leads the Golden Boot race as the competition’s all-time top scorer.
• Houston is a long way from Canada, and this is probably where the co-hosts’ run comes to earth, with 2022 semifinalists Morocco going deep once more.
• If any of them capture form and momentum at the right time, they will prove tough to stop.
• One recurring issue in recent years has been their lack of a true centre-forward.
• The tournament has three different hosts, which are Canada, Mexico, and the USA, all three of which will feature in the tournament due to hosting.
• Here is how the leading contenders stack up as the knockouts begin.
• It’s one thing having World Cup predictions at your disposal, but it’s important to use them correctly and alongside your own research.
• Sweden (in 1958) and Czechia (in 1934 and 1962) have both been World Cup finalists previously (the latter as Czechoslovakia) but could still miss the tournament, as could former European champions Denmark.
• A battle of the veterans as Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modric, both into their fifth decade, face off for the last time on the big stage.

Elo ratings + XGBoost trained on 50,000+ international matches. The 2026 World Cup will be the broadest, most competitive, and most logistically complex tournament ever staged. Picking a winner is harder than it has ever been, and that’s precisely what makes the build-up so compelling. Whatever your predictions, the only certainty is that we’ll all be surprised by something. Spain is backed to make light work of Austria, as is England in its meeting with DR Congo.

But time and again, they flatter to deceive on this stage, and the sight of them hanging on world cup 2026 teams against Iran should give Australia plenty of encouragement. A battle of the veterans as Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modric, both into their fifth decade, face off for the last time on the big stage. Mexico at the Azteca, backed by a raucous home crowd, has become appointment viewing at this World Cup.

Standing in its way is underdog Cabo Verde, whose spirited journey is expected to come to an emphatic end in the coming days. We’ve lost big names like Uruguay, Scotland and Türkiye, but all the pre-tournament favorites are still alive and kicking in pursuit of glory across the United States, Canada and Mexico. The teams that can solve different tactical puzzles, manage their energy levels and thrive in hostile conditions usually find themselves going deepest into the competition. Luis de la Fuente and his squad of stars will want to change that and with Cape Verde, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia to come in Group H this summer, reaching the knockouts is unlikely to be a problem. Spain often have a who’s who of title winners from across Europe, and this summer is no different.

Portugal vs. Argentina

As for Paraguay, Diego Gomez will miss the match through suspension, having picked up a second yellow card of the tournament against Australia last time out. The White and Reds picked up four points from their three Group D matches to finish third, only behind second-placed Australia on goal difference. Die Mannschaft actually locked horns with Paraguay in the last-16 stage of the 2002 World Cup, recording a 1-0 victory courtesy of a late effort from Oliver Neuville. Germany are four-time world champions, but they were knocked out in the group stage of both the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. DFB-Team were not mentioned as one of the serious challengers for the trophy pre-tournament, and they are still regarded as outsiders at this stage, especially as France could be waiting in the last-16 stage of the tournament.

World Cup futures, soccer best bets, FIFA predictions

Along with the Gold Cup run, a 5-1 win over Uruguay last time out put Pochettino’s critics on notice, and the USA should feel good about their chances of being competitive in the knockout stages. While our model doesn’t deviate too much from the conventional wisdom, we don’t have teams in quite the same order. There are charts showing each team’s chance of winning it all, their most likely opponents at each stage, and precise odds for each game, including the likelihood of particular scores (e.g., Brazil 2-1).

Leading the way is France with a chance of 18.66%, putting Les Bleus marginally ahead of Argentina’s 16.26%. As the round of 32 prepares to get underway on Sunday, the cogs of the Opta supercomputer have been whirring to rate every team’s chances of glory. (via FanDuel Sportsbook, subject to change)See full World Cup picks at SportsLine. Portugal, who arrive in the US, Canada and Mexico ranked fifth in the world and fourth favourites for the tournament, are in a favourable-looking Group K alongside the likes of Colombia, DR Congo and Uzbekistan. That flexibility feels particularly important in a World Cup likely to be played in extreme temperatures. That’s why Spain make the most appeal as the outright winners.

Jamiro Monteiro and Garry Rodrigues add craft in midfield, and manager Aguas is expected to name a similar side to the one that earned three draws through the group phase. For the co-hosts, Canada sits lowest in the rankings at 0.47%, with Mexico up at 1.81%. The USMNT leads the way once again at 2.45%, but there are 10 teams seen as more likely winners.

It’s not a big surprise to see leading European nations join traditional World Cup heavyweights Argentina and Brazil as the top 10 teams tipped to challenge this summer. Ancelotti is armed with attacking talent, having opted to select record goalscorer Neymar in addition to stars like Vinícius Júnior, Raphinha and Matheus Cunha. His squad have a 22.1% hope of making the last four, at which stage few would want to face them.

We say: Germany 2-1 Paraguay

With so much on the line in each and every game with players playing for pride and their nation, it means there are various different betting angles to target. On top of that, online bookmakers may offer special promotions and an extensive range of markets for every game at the World Cup Finals. Paraguay’s best-ever showing at a World Cup came in 2010, when they reached the quarter-finals, but the national side missed out on qualification in 2014, 2018 and 2022.

Mexico vs. England

They could give Germany a run for their money in Group E and are given a 43.4% chance of reaching the last 16. But Mexico are given only a 1.0% chance of victory, putting them behind fellow co-hosts United States, Japan and Ecuador, and level with Senegal. Mexico, who will play South Africa in the opening game at Estadio Azteca, also fare reasonably well in our sims.

This site contains commercial content and CBS Sports may be compensated for the links provided on this site. Luis de la Fuente’s side are arguably the best-equipped team in the tournament because they possess two attributes that are often difficult to marry together. They can dominate possession for long spells, suffocating opponents and conserving energy through control of the ball – but they can also go direct and attack space quickly when the game demands it. They are the reigning European champions too, having beaten England in the final two years ago, and will be looking to add to their only World Cup title from 2010.

• The USA enter a home tournament with their strongest squad in a generation, headlined by Christian Pulisic, Gio Reyna, and Yunus Musah.
• Cape Verde have qualified for the first time and are among 10 countries from Africa, while the three co-hosts make up half of six teams from the CONCACAF region.
• Argentina are in clinical form and showing no signs of complacency heading into the knockout rounds.
• But a rampant 5-0 victory in Serbia in September showcased the Three Lions’ potential, and the emergence of Elliot Anderson seems to have finally ended their search for a central midfield partner for Declan Rice.
• Argentina enter the tournament as defending champions, four years on from Lionel Messi’s long-awaited crowning moment, and as the all-time great prepares for his last dance on this stage.
• La Roja have a greater than one-in-three chance (39.0%) of reaching the semis and made the final 25.6% of the time.
• Portugal are slight favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, winning 51.6 percent of its 25,000 pre-match simulations.
• France and Argentina are the most likely finalists, sitting on opposite halves of the bracket.

Key Tactical Matchup

Teams are divided into 12 groups of 4, with the top 2 from each group advancing to a 32-team knockout bracket. Build your bracket, play the prediction league, and follow every match — all in one place. Gillette Stadium will host an intriguing World Cup last-32 clash between Germany and Paraguay.

France: 14.1%

Ancelotti was only in charge for the final five games of their campaign, but less than eight months into his reign, he has already overseen surprise defeats to Bolivia and Japan, as well as poor draws with Ecuador and Tunisia. Germany arguably played some of the best football at Euro 2024, ranking second for average possession (62.5%) and goals scored (11), but Nagelsmann has plenty of selection dilemmas to consider. Messi has shown no signs of slowing down, helping Inter Miami reach the Major League Soccer Cup final while contributing a staggering 35 goals and providing 21 assists in MLS action this year. There should be plenty of service for Harry Kane, who is Europe’s most in-form striker, netting 24 goals in 20 matches for Bayern Munich since the start of the season in August. But there is a competitive race for the positions behind the England skipper after Tuchel suggested Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden could not both start, while Cole Palmer’s season has barely got going due to injuries.

All 12 Group Stage Predictions

With 48 teams taking part, there also will be some new names gracing the tournament. Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, now teammates at Napoli, and Thibaut Courtois will all feature at a fourth edition of the World Cup – no player has ever represented Belgium at more (Enzo Scifo also four). Those teams round out the top 10 favourites, with Belgium next with a 1.9% probability.

The Round of 32 began on June 28, 2026 and runs through July 3. The expanded 48-team format added this extra knockout round for the first time, sending 32 of the 48 teams into single-elimination ties before the Round of 16. Debutants Cape Verde finished second in Group H ahead of two-time champions Uruguay, who were eliminated. South Africa and Egypt also reached the knockouts for the first time, while pre-tournament hopefuls Turkiye and Uruguay both went home early.

A rampant Kane scored an astonishing 61 club goals across all competitions (64 if you also include the Club World Cup) and finished the season in fine style with two consecutive hat-tricks. Harry Kane shouldn’t be short of service and Tuchel will be buoyed by the fact his captain is coming off a sensational campaign with Bayern Munich that saw him win the European Golden Shoe award. France are seen as having the most difficult group of the leading teams, as they face Norway, Senegal and Iraq in Group I. That is helpful to coach Luis de la Fuente given there are doubts over the fitness of Barcelona sensation Lamine Yamal for their initial games as he recovers from a hamstring injury.

Cape Verde (0.1%) have qualified and are the second-smallest nation by population (after Iceland in 2018) to achieve the feat. They fared slightly better with our model than the other first-timers Curaçao and Jordan (both 0.04%). If previous World Cups are anything to go by, shocks and surprises should be a given, so all those teams will still be dreaming of a deep run. They must get past Northern Ireland and potentially Wales to make it, with both of those sides hoping to join fellow home nations England and Scotland. Inspirational Croatia captain Luka Modrić is hoping to appear at his fifth World Cup at the age of 40, and no team will want to see Croatia drawn into their group from Pot 2. That previous dry spell ended, of course, in the United States, and Brazil are assigned a 5.6% chance of another stateside triumph.

Ecuador (1.4%) are potentially tricky opponents who the top teams will want to avoid. They impressively finished second in South American qualifying and conceded just five goals in 18 matches. Jesse Marsch has a 42.7% chance of leading his team to the last 16, which would represent a magnificent performance. They are expected to challenge Switzerland for top spot in Group B. Erling Haaland struck 16 times in just eight games, matching Robert Lewandowski’s 2018 record for the most prolific UEFA World Cup qualification campaign.

So who will win the World Cup 2026, and which longshot could stun the soccer world? Check out the soccer odds below and then visit SportsLine to see Martin Green’s best bets for the 2026 World Cup, all from the proven expert who has crushed his soccer picks, and find out. After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Last year, Green was profitable in multiple areas on his soccer betting picks, including the Champions League (+211.25) and Bundesliga (+100). He’s also been red-hot in 2026, posting an 18-8 record over his last 26 UCL picks, returning nearly $1,000 in profit. Anyone wanting to follow his World Cup betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could see big returns.

• Eleven of the tournament’s venues are in the USA, and Mauricio Pochettino’s side are assigned a 0.9% chance of going all the way.
• But there is one scenario our supercomputer is willing to rule out, as the only team who never won the tournament in any of our 25,000 simulations was Curaçao.
• The World Cup 2026 knockout stage ruthlessly separates those who have managed a passage through a group from those who can compete at the elite level over 90 minutes.
• France became the sixth team to win the World Cup as hosts in 1998, but no side has accomplished the feat since then.
• At Juve FC, Luca covers match analysis, squad news, and the longer threads that run through a Juventus season.
• Given the number of top-class players in Roberto Martinez’s team, our prediction leans toward a 2-1 home win.
• Ivory Coast arguably should have won all three of their Group E matches after they threw away a 1-0 lead to lose late against Germany, but Emerse Fae’s team have found goals hard to come by.
• For the first time in World Cup history, the winners and runners-up of each group will be joined in the knockout round of 32 by the eight best third-placed teams.
• As USA have been producing excellent performances in front of home fans, our prediction points toward a 2-1 home win.
• But they won that match by a statement 6-0 scoreline, with Nick Woltemade, Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sané among the goals.
• Rui Aguas guided his side to three draws in Group H against Spain, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia, which proved enough to advance, making them one of the surprise packages of the tournament.

Gustavo Alfaro’s team will enter this match off the back of a goalless draw with Australia, while their one success this summer was a 1-0 victory over Turkey. South Africa (0.1%) are the joint 37th likeliest winners of the World Cup but still have a healthy 49.3% chance of making the knockouts, helped by being in a group where co-hosts Mexico are the top seeds. Cape Verde made the knockout stage in just 33.9% of the sims (the fourth-lowest rate of any team), with Curaçao’s chance being even lower at 18.5% (the second-lowest, only above Haiti’s 15.9%).

Preview: Germany vs Paraguay – prediction, team news, lineups 2026 World Cup

Dive deeper into the tournament with our guides, analysis, and complete team profiles. Brazil have been improving with every match, defeating Scotland and Haiti before sharing the spoils with Morocco. The Yanks sacrificed their 100% group-stage record with a 3-2 defeat to Turkey, but Mauricio Pochettino’s decision to rotate the entire s… Our predictor lets you override any forecast and compete with friends. Independent mathematical ratings that adjust for match importance, result, and opponent strength.

France vs. Sweden: France -1.5

At 1/6, there is no value in the match result outright, but Argentina to win and over 2.5 goals at the best available price represents the most sensible angle in a game that has all the hallmarks of a heavy home-side victory. Mexico are seeded comfortably and will play key matches at altitude in Mexico City, a significant advantage. The USA enter a home tournament with their strongest squad in a generation, headlined by Christian Pulisic, Gio Reyna, and Yunus Musah. While outright victory may be a stretch, a deep run by either CONCACAF nation feels plausible. They are robust, organised, physically powerful and extremely difficult to break down. With William Pacho and Moises Caicedo forming the spine of the team, they have the foundations required to frustrate even the elite nations.

A place in the World Cup last 16 will be at stake when Switzerland and Algeria meet in what promises to be a tightly contested knockout clash. As both sides are likely to rely on their defences this time out, we predict a 1-1 draw. Switzerland enjoyed a solid group campaign, beating Bosnia and Canada while drawing 1-1 with Qatar in a match they arguably deserved more from. Group-by-group odds, knockout stage forecasts, and tapados watch — all powered by FIFA rankings, ELO ratings, and past tournament performance. Stephen Eustaquio’s late goal sparked jubilant celebrations among the co-hosts, with head coach Jesse Marsch telling his players they had become “Canadian heroes” and inspired the next generation of footballers. Canada reached the men’s World Cup last 16 for the first time after a dramatic stoppage-time victory over South Africa, marking the nation’s first knockout win at the tournament.

Every result below is cross-checked against the final standings, so the picks reflect what actually happened on the pitch, not just pre-tournament models. Choose group outcomes, pick the knockout winners and discover who triumphs. Earn points, climb the leaderboard, and create private leagues with friends.

And Argentina’s win in 2022.

Rui Aguas guided his side to three draws in Group H against Spain, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia, which proved enough to advance, making them one of the surprise packages of the tournament. Their organised defensive shape has been the foundation throughout, keeping clean sheets against Spain and Saudi Arabia and conceding only twice across three games. However, the step up to face Argentina in a knockout tie is of a different magnitude entirely. Green has studied the 2026 World Cup draw and locked in his best bets and predictions, including his outright winner.

Argentina vs United States – The US crashed out at this juncture in the last tournament staged on their soil, and history looks set to repeat itself against the reigning champions. Brazil vs Senegal – There’s little doubt that Senegal possess the quality and confidence to push this tie into extra time. However, it probably won’t be enough to prevent the Selecao from edging through to the next round. Mexico vs Best 3rd place Group C/E/F/H/I – Since suffering a quarter-final elimination on home soil in 1986, Mexico have reached the round of 16 in seven of their eight World Cup appearances. Ivory Coast vs Senegal – Senegal’s impressive results in recent tournaments point towards an emphatic victory in this all-African knockout tie.

Meanwhile, European soccer insider Martin Green has also revealed picks for Ivory Coast vs. Norway and Sweden vs. France. He’s backing Norway to win behind star striker Erling Haaland and also has France winning comfortably against a European rival. The over/under for total goals scored in France vs. Sweden is 3.5.